December 2009

march_of_the_penguins - Realtime webI remember reading the Premiere magazine article about Mark Gill buying March of the Penguins and wondering, marveling even, at the significance of taking a French documentary and repurposing it for an American audience. This was something of a revelation; understanding that the message, even of a universally adored nature film, isn’t necessarily universal but rather highly targeted; if Miramax’s iteration worked better on a global scale, it may be because an American perspective and sensibility has been so successfully exported internationally.

I recently wrote a paper for a marketing and distribution class at UCLA concerning the outlook shared by Gill and a year later James Stearn on the health of independent cinema and the movie industry as a whole.  Gill offered a sobering reality check having to do with the glut of films that flooded the increasingly frugal marketplace whereas Stearn saw opportunity for improving the quality of the films as the best would rise to the top.  What follows are my reaction to their positions.

While I appreciate Gill’s sober stance on the realities of the industry, one that became even more dire in the subsequent year when EndGame’s James Stearn took his place at the lectern, particularly due to the fact of the perfect storm that was the collapse of the global economy and the indie equivalent of the dot com bubble bursting, I feel Gill’s take on the music industry and why it collapsed is not only smug but fundamentally flawed and somewhat dangerous. It would behoove the movie industry to bear in mind that they had a ten-year grace period due to the fact that bandwidth for showing high quality video was ten times larger than that of music. The “Movie Industry” didn’t get things right where the “Music Industry” got it wrong – they just had more time to sit back and get a sense of what the massively disruptive technology that was the Internet was really going to mean to the bottom line.

Nonetheless, the music industry blew it in that they forgot that they were part of the Entertainment Industry and not singularly the Music Industry. The hubris and competition amongst these industries is often their Achilles heel. Rather than laud Sean Fanning, creator of Napster, as the solution to distribution in the new model, Fanning was sued right and left and ostracized like Alan Turing.

I found it astounding that Mark Gill points out the 5,000 entries to Sundance in 2007 versus the 500 it had fifteen years prior. Then only a year later, James Stearn submits that the number of entries in the subsequent year was closer to 9500. If this is correct, that means the number of entries to Sundance doubled in one year!

Not only are the good people of the world making more movies at home (and this during the economic meltdown) but they are becoming increasingly cognizant of marketing, distribution and monetization opportunities. Of course, this doesn’t mean there is more audience of more money, in fact it creates an even deeper glut of film, but it does mean that not only will quality matter in order to separate the proverbial wheat from the chaff, but so will how and where and why things are marketed and distributed as the competition in these areas becomes stiffer and more accessible.

James Stern is correct in highlighting the virtue of the short-form film and responding to the Millennial Boomers with the format. Attention Deficit Disorder is not a function of age but of the times. We are all real-time curators and tastemakers and should be targeted at the micro-niche level. A person I spoke with who works at Live Nation constantly expressed his chagrin at the fact that marketing to a general demographic (for example 18-24) is utterly myopic. Among those 18-24 year-olds are, to use Malcolm Gladwell’s terminology, Tastemakers, Mavericks and Connectors. They need to be isolated and the systems to delineate them must be supported, not battled in court. In fact, doing so openly, like Netflix does, is a far more rewarding effort, than doing it covertly through cookies and trackers and 3rd party data collection apps.

That film, as Gill puts it, allows us to target highly specific demographics in one part. Delivering high quality, thoughtful, engaging and memorable content is second, but making it bite sized and a la carte is paramount. We are waiting for the Kubrick of YouTube to arrive. Where is the Spielberg of Vimeo?

The app store effect is not a function of Apple but rather an effect of the widget economy. We are all master chefs in Kitchen Stadium [a reference to popular Japanese cook show Iron Chef] selecting the finest ingredients to concoct our tasty masterpieces on the fly.

From Netflix and E-Bay account piping into a sandbox aggregator like Squidoo, alongside Facebook’s status updates and Twitterstreams, we are irrevocably moving into the era of the real-time web; it is not the tomato we care about but whom the person will be that uses it most creatively. It is no less a tomato as a result, but it is merely a color with which the master will paint and, we will mash-up, mod and repurpose the content to ultimately render the portrait of our essence, personality, our souls. A portrait, whose real meaning will emerge when we cross our tired eyes slightly and gaze upon it like a magic eye.

NOTE: I originally wrote this draft in October.  At that time, I read a Tweet from Mashable that Google Wave is going live to 100,000 pre-registered users. The realtime web is not a theory or conjecture, it has literally arrived and nothing will ever be the same.

UPDATE 12-07-2009 – It’s a little strange that I am publishing this article after the one I posted earlier this morning about Google’s announcement of Realtime search.  GoogleWave now seems like an ancillary to the central eye-raising explosion of technologies that Google has innovated in bring all content to our eyeballs at near light speed.

11:33 and the realtime web photo by Keram Malicki-SanchezSeveral exciting announcements from the Google Search Event today December 7th, 2009 – a series of updates and concepts presented on the present and future of Google and online search in general.

Japanese language voice search is now active.

Google Goggles, in the Google Labs, is part of an initiative that Google calls a nascent technology that aims to apply search to the most complex of the human senses – sight. It will allow the user to take a photo of anything and use that as the search criteria. Billions of images exist in an index but Google opted not to incorporate facial recognition to safeguard user privacy despite the fact that they do have the technology fully working. “Unsupervised learning” are algorithms that will actually go “out” and work on image recognition on its own, parsing comparative data to determine what an image is. Imagine, for example taking a photo of the Empire State Building – a photo that you have taken, not a generic published photo, and like Shazam does with music, Goggles will parse and return search results about the Empire State Building.

Google MyLocation, Mobile Maps, Near Me Now builds on the fact that wherever a user is, so is their cell phone. By always knowing where the cell phone owner is located it can shave off seconds from search result replies. Near Me Now is an awesome Android app: imagine, for example you arrive at an outdoor event early and aren’t sure what to do in order to kill ten minutes. Using Google mobile geo-location search feature, you can get realtime search results about not only what coffee shops but the most popular or best liked are within a walking distance. The tech will use radio, cell and satellite to get latitude and longitude as quickly as possible.

Today Google announces Realtime search

Forever gone are the days up updating indexes once a month or week or day or even minute. “Relevance is the foundation of this product – relevance, relevance, relevance.” Looking at the Google results page is unlike anything you have seen before – scrolling updating data as it happens on the web.” says Amit Singhal (master of Google’s ranking algorithm) giddily who also underlined that in twenty years of working on search engines this is one of the most exciting announcements of which he has ever been a part. Now it makes sense that Google sucked Twitter into its search engine result. I hope this finally underscores for the doubters my evangelizing about Twitter.

This will literally change everything. If we believed that Google Wave, the realtime collaborative tool, was groundbreaking, then true, realtime search will deeply affect how everything we exchange will unfold from this point forward.

The realtime search results can be accessed by clicking “Latest” as opposed to Past Hour, Past 24 hours and so on. The user will be shown the updates as they hit Google’s servers themselves in realtime. “It shows you exactly what you need as it happens, including tweets.” Dozens of new technologies to build realtime search like query fluctuation models, realtime content generation fluctuation model that has to recognize that an event took place and spiked. Within seconds Google realtime is analyzing, filtering for relevance and posting billions of documents created daily, on the fly.

“The importance of relevance has gone through the roof – and everything has become relevant and at the pace at which it is growing, relevance has become the critical factor in building products like this.”

Like when Google announced Gmail with unlimited storage and Yahoo watched in horror, I can only imagine what Bing must feel like right now. Google realtime search is already available in Google mobile.

Google Trends

Working from there, Google Trends is graduating from GLabs to Google proper. The concept of trending that grew up on twitter is now going to figure as a key search method. Combining realtime web with trending is a little mind-blowing. Check it out at http://www.google.com/trends

What this will potentially do for the stock market is frightening.

How about the idea put forth at the talk about realtime inventory reporting – ie. how many copies of a new book are still in stock, or signed special edition copies of that guitar? Turn Google (or perhaps Froogle) into a realtime QVC!

Facebook pages – the public profiles for specific entities, and MySpace pages designated as public will also be appearing in Google realtime search (as will identi.ca, Friendfeed and others) – this means that everyone is essentially a live content creator whose output is being cataloged. Users will be able to decide what is or is not broadcast via their privacy controls. Again, the implications are staggering.

What Will Realtime Search Mean for Pagerank?

As far as pagerank, Mr. Singhal acknowledges the importance of pagerank and reassures the journalists that it is still a factor in realtime search but that additionally dozens of technologies were created not replacing it. Pagerank is what gives weight to the reliability of a source.